Set the right causes for the future


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The twentieth century was the century of ideologies characterized by certitudes and static conditions at last. The 21st century is going to be a century of uncertainty and change. At the turn of the century a series of crises set in: the Peso crisis, the Asia crisis, the Ruble crisis, the default of Argentina. When the dot-com bubble burst, it was swiftly replaced by a housing bubble. The following financial crisis plunged the world's mature economies into an economic crisis provisionally halted by rampant public debt only. The crises escalate in intensity and incidence thereby accelerating cultural, societal and economic change. Confidence in secure investments has vanished, economic antagonism is turning into currency warfare. Traditional structures and mental models increasingly fail or become useless. The assumption of a definite future gets replaced by the probabilities of possible futures and cases. So-called weak signals herald changes for decades in advance even if some uncertainty as to their precise development has to be accepted. For estimating the probabilities of potential futures we combine weak signals with a number of other signals and link them with each other.

Our service: We examine risk factors, weak signals and causal connections as to relevance for your future scenarios and support you in analyzing their significance, reach, consequences and scope. To this end we also draw on expert opinion. Our future matrix provides you with a clear assessment of the probabilities, interdependencies and consequences of major developments, which are most likely to impact on your organization, partners and clients in future.

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